Electric vehicles will make up the majority of car sales by 2040

A BNEF report predicts that EV sales will surpass those of conventional passenger cars for the first time in 2038, reaching over 4.7 million conventional vehicles; by 2040, this gap is estimated to widen significantly, with EV sales reaching 56 million, or 10.6 million more than combustion vehicles, 10 million more than combustion vehicles, which account for 57% of all passenger cars in the world .

This market share estimate represents a two percentage point increase from last year’ BNEF 2040 forecast, indicating that the organization is even more optimistic about the future of electric vehicles. BNEF also predicts that electric vehicles will account for a similar share of light business sales in the US, Europe and China during this period.

I think there's a real chance that global conventional car sales have already topped the climax.

The report says that over the next 20 years, annual global sales of electric vehicles will increase by 5.4 million, while annual global sales of conventional vehicles will fall from 8.5 million to 42 million over the same period.

Creating conditions for electric vehicles 

There are many factors that set the stage for this huge fortune, starting with the fact that electric cars have long been cheaper than petrol and diesel cars, but now they are getting closer to reaching their price. According to the report, electric vehicles will soon surpass internal combustion engine vehicles as the most economical vehicle option.

The steady decline in battery prices seen over much of the past decade is also driving down the cost of electric vehicles. Thanks to improvements in manufacturing and the release of more batteries, the cost per kilowatt has decreased by 85% since 2010.

Electric vehicles are not only cheaper than gasoline, but they also require less maintenance than conventional cars because they have fewer moving parts.

BNEF also predicted that, unfortunately, as the total number of cars on the road continues to grow, the positive impact of electric vehicles on greenhouse gas emissions will be offset by increased car use. Thus, as we approach 2040, emissions will suddenly drop.

Another conclusion of the report is that car-sharing services will transition to electric vehicles faster than individuals as fleet owners look to reduce maintenance and fueling costs.

Currently, more than 1 billion people use public transport services, including taxis. China is forecast to continue to lead the world in electric vehicle production, but the country's market share will shrink slightly as other countries increase their electricity sales. China is expected to account for 48% of all electric vehicles sold globally in 2025, but by 2040, China will only account for 26% of the total.